GM(1,1)预测效果数值试验   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

邹长武  贺孝刚  丁晶 《成都信息工程学院学报》2003,18(4):403-407

采用不同类型原始数据对传统GM(1，1)进行了预测效果数值试验，然后通过对预测结果及传统GM(1，1)基本思想进行深入分析提出传统GM(1，1)存在的问题，并提出了相应的改进思路。  相似文献   

仿真实验的应用与大学物理实验的教学改革   总被引：16，自引：0，他引：16  

蔡青 《成都信息工程学院学报》2006,21(1):113-115

分析传统教学模式下物理实验教学存在的问题,介绍计算机仿真物理实验系统在具体教学实践中获得的良好教学效果,探讨其中还存在的一些不足之处.提出只有把各种教学手段合理而有效地结合起来,才能收到最佳的教学效果,达到优化实验教学的目标.  相似文献   

冻土斜坡模型试验相似分析   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6  

靳德武  牛富俊  陈志新  倪万魁 《地球科学与环境学报》2004,26(1):29-32

南水北调工程、青藏铁路建设工程等一系列工程的实施,将进一步影响和加剧青藏高原多年冻土区斜坡稳定性问题,冻土区边坡开挖及斜坡稳定性是工程活动中必须解决的问题之一,冻土斜坡稳定性研究在国内尚属空白。通过相似模型试验对高原多年冻土区斜坡在自然和人类活动影响下的失稳机制和活动规律进行分析,是开展研究的重要手段。根据相似理论第一定律,对冻土斜坡模型试验进行了相似分析,应用积分类比法推导并建立了冻土斜坡模型试验的相似指标和相似判据,得出在用原状土作模型介质时,6个相似常数减少为2个相似常数,即cτ和cl。模型与原型的时间比例尺是由几何比例尺决定的,即cτ=c2l,仅有一个相似参数为自变量,另一个为因变量。据此对青藏高原多年冻土区青藏公路沿线K3035处冻土斜坡进行了相似模型设计和冻融模型试验。模型再现了K3035处7°斜坡在4个冻融循环条件下,坡体中部(水平、垂向)4#位移伸张计质点位移曲线随时间的变化特征。实验表明,斜坡土体中部在第一次冻融循环中已有滑动迹象,随着滑坎进一步后退和靠近观测基准点,必然出现一次较大的位移,直至周边土体出现滑塌为止。模型试验结果与现场观测资料相比较是令人满意的。  相似文献   

A new method for multi-point pollution source identification          下载免费PDF全文

Jilin Wang  Juanjuan Liu  Bin Wang  Wei Cheng  Jiping Zhang 《大气和海洋科学快报》2021,14(6):54-59

对于污染源源项特征(数量,位置及排放强度)的快速且精确估计是污染事件应急响应的关键.与单点源估计相比,多点源的重建更具挑战性.本文提出了一种新的针对于多点源污染事件的两步反演算法,该算法通过结合大气化学模式与有限的浓度观测数据以实现对于未知数量的多点源的准确估计.在其计算过程中,无需任何未知量的先验信息,且可以自动识别污染源的数量,并确定每一个污染源的位置及强度.本文通过使用若干组理想试验验证了算法的适用性,试验结果表明,该算法可准确估计单点源,两点源和三点源的个数及位置,强度的估计误差可基本忽略.且该算法的估计精度和计算效率不会随着点源个数的增加而减弱.  相似文献   

交互正交试验设计在Mn/Ce催化剂制备中的应用     

王健  李鱼  董国华  汤洁 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2007,37(3):605-610

利用交互正交试验设计对柠檬酸络合法制备Mn/Ce复合氧化物催化剂(简称Mn/Ce催化剂)的制备条件进行了优化,重点考察金属配比(Mn∶Ce=7∶3、1∶1、3∶7)、焙烧温度(350℃、500℃、650℃)、焙烧时间(2 h、3.5 h5、h)等3种因素对催化湿式氧化(CWAO)降解正丁酸过程中Mn/Ce催化剂活性的影响。结果表明,金属配比和焙烧温度对催化剂活性有显著影响(置信度p分别为99%和95%),焙烧时间对催化剂活性无显著影响(p=90%),焙烧温度与金属配比之间有显著的交互作用(p=99%),得到的最佳制备条件为:Mn∶Ce=3∶7、焙烧温度500℃和焙烧时间5 h;并对最佳制备条件下得到的Mn/Ce催化剂进行XRD、BET和SEM等表征。  相似文献   

Hydrocarbon Generation Characteristics of Source Rocks from Different Saline Environments in the Dongpu Depression,Bohai Bay Basin,China     

LI Wendu  ZHANG Pengyuan  JIANG Fujie  ZHANG Yunxian  HUANG Rend  XU Tianwu  ZHOU Yongshui  LI Longlong  JIANG Wenli 《《地质学报》英文版》2021,95(4):1260-1278

The Dongpu Depression is a secondary salt-bearing tectonic unit in the Bohai Bay Basin, eastern China. The depositional environment of this depression regarding its Paleogene strata is clearly different in plane, including the saltwater environment(SE) in the north, the freshwater environment(FE) in the south and the brackish water environment(BE) in the middle. The result of oil and gas exploration in the Dongpu Depression shows that more than 90% of the proven oil reserves are distributed in the northern saltwater environment. Previous studies indicate that the organic geochemistry characteristics and the hydrocarbon generation capacity of the source rocks are very clearly diverse under different environments, which results in the significant differences in the proved reserves between the north and the south. In order to further explore the differences in the hydrocarbon generation capacity of the source rocks under distinct depositional environments and the mechanism of their occurrence, three samples from different depositional environments(W18-5 for SE, H7-18 for BE, CH9 for FE) were used for confined gold tube pyrolysis experiments. The results show that the CH4 yields of W18-5, H7-18 and CH9 increase with increasing temperature, the maximum yields being 405.62 mg/g TOC, 388.56 mg/g TOC and 367.89 mg/g TOC, respectively. The liquid hydrocarbon yields of W18-5, H7-18 and CH9 firstly increase with increasing temperature and then decrease after the critical temperatures. The maximum yields of C6-14 are 149.54 mg/g TOC, 140.18 mg/g TOC and 116.94 mg/g TOC, the maximum yields of C14+ being 852.4 mg/g TOC, 652.6 mg/g TOC and 596.41 mg/g TOC, respectively for W18-5, H7-18 and CH9. To summarize, the order of hydrocarbon potential from high to low is W18-5, H7-18 and CH9. On this basis, through analyzing the influencing factors of hydrocarbon differences, this paper reveals that the saltwater environment is characterized by 4 factors: higher salinity, halophilic algae, high paleo-productivity and a strongly reducing environment, which are beneficial to the enrichment of organic matter and lead to the formation of high levels of sapropelite and exinite. According to the variation of oil and gas components in the pyrolysis experiments, the hydrocarbon generation process is divided into three stages: kerogen cracking, oil cracking and C2-5 cracking. Combined with hydrocarbon generation characteristics and stages, the evolutionary model of hydrocarbon generation for source rocks under different environments is established.  相似文献   

井内混合效应对弥散尺度依赖性影响的实验研究     

马子淇  戴振学  董书宁  王皓  刘小千 《煤田地质与勘探》2021,49(1):225-231

弥散度是刻画孔隙介质中溶质运移和扩散的重要参数,对于污染物的预测和修复至关重要,但野外示踪试验往往会选择忽略真实存在的井内混合效应。通过室内砂槽实验方法,模拟具有水平分层结构的含水层,该含水层主要由3种介质充填而成。采用埋藏传感器和井中布设传感器2种监测方式,对比在有/无混合效应情况下,穿透曲线的形态差异,进而探究井内混合效应对弥散尺度依赖性的影响情况。实验结果表明,井内混合效应会使穿透曲线呈现阶梯式增长,并伴有显著的拖尾现象;当使用对流弥散方程进行计算时,混合效应会导致弥散度被高估;观测到的弥散度与真实弥散度的差异会随着注入井和观测井间距离的增加而增大;此外,2种观测方式（埋藏/井内）均能发现弥散的尺度依赖性,且井内混合效应显著增强了弥散尺度效应,该实验结果可为污染物运移的评价和预测提供参考。   相似文献   

区域气候模式水平分辨率对黄淮海流域当代气候模拟的影响          下载免费PDF全文

夏军强  陈倩  董柏良  张晓雷 《水科学进展》2021,31(6):843-854

区域气候模式是进行流域尺度气候变化研究的重要工具,其中水平分辨率对流域模拟结果的影响亟待评估。本文使用区域气候模式RegCM4,在ERA-Interim再分析资料驱动下,进行2种水平分辨率（50 km和25 km）1990-2010年东亚区域的长时间连续积分模拟。通过与观测资料的对比,评估RegCM4对黄淮海流域的模拟性能,同时分析水平分辨率对模拟结果的影响。结果表明:① 2组模拟均可以较好地再现黄淮海流域冬季、夏季平均气温和降水的空间分布,以及气温和降水的年循环变化;对极端气候事件指数的分布模拟效果也较好,且对与气温有关的极端气候事件指数模拟效果优于与降水有关的极端气候事件指数。②与观测相比,也存在一定的偏差,如模拟的冬季气温存在冷偏差,夏季气温存在暖偏差,冬季、夏季降水在大部分地区偏多等。③ 2组模拟对比来看,对冬季、夏季平均气温的量级和空间分布,25 km模拟与观测更加接近;对冬季、夏季平均降水,50 km模拟与观测的空间相关系数分别为0.86和0.44,较25 km模拟有较大提高;对极端事件,2组模拟差别不大。模拟结果可为后续此版本模式在黄淮海流域气候变化研究中的应用提供参考。  相似文献   

Architectures and evolution of arid alluvial fans: Insights from a flume experiment          下载免费PDF全文

Zhu Yi-Jie  Xia Rui  Zheng Yun-Ke  Liu Chen-Hu  Yu Bin  Lü  Jun-Ling  Feng Wen-Jie 《古地理学报》2021,22(6):1081-1094

Using time-lapse cameras and a 3D laser scanner,74 groups of geomorphic data of alluvial fans were obtained through flume experiments. Then a detailed sedimentary analysis based on these data was performed by using a quantitative software to reveal the sedimentary evolution process of the arid alluvial fan and its depositional architecture. Results suggest that there are obvious differences in hydrodynamics,water flow patterns and growth pattern during the evolution of arid alluvial fans. Based on these differences,the experiment is divided into three stages,including an early,middle,and late stage. In the early stage,the fan surface hydrodynamics was relatively strong,and the sheet flow dominated the deposition. According to the distribution of sheet flow deposits,it can be divided into wide-spread sheet flow deposition and local sheet flow deposition. In the middle period of the experiment,the hydrodynamic strength and expansion rate at the middle-distal part of the fan body reduced. The non-confined channel which is close to the source dominated the deposition,and terminal lobe was mainly deposited on the edge of the river channel. In the late stage of the experiment,the hydrodynamic further reduced causing by the large fan surface and confined channels were the main deposits. Through the flume experiment,an arid alluvial fan depositional architecture model with a three-layer structure has been established. The bottom layer is of a sheet flow lobe complex,the middle layer is characterized by unconfined channels and terminal lobes,and the top layer is constituted by stacked confined channels and small terminal lobes.  相似文献   

植草沟滞蓄城市道路雨水的试验及模拟   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

孟莹莹  陈茂福  张书函 《水科学进展》2018,29(5):636-644

为定量分析植草沟的水文性能,优化其设计参数取值,通过植草沟滞蓄城市道路雨水的试验设施开展模拟径流试验,验证了SWMM （storm water management model）模型模拟植草沟滞蓄效果的可行性,通过模型情景分析提出了设施的优化设计参数,评估了设施对提高道路排水标准和长期径流削减的影响。研究结果表明:SWMM模型对模拟植草沟水文性能具有较好的精度,对较小的降雨重现期和边坡比,较大的滞蓄深度、植被覆盖率和面积负荷比,植草沟的滞蓄能力更强,建议其设计降雨重现期不超过10年,滞蓄深度为10 cm以上,边坡比至少为3,植被覆盖率为0.5以上,面积负荷比为5%以上。模拟北京某城市道路采用植草沟设施后,可将3年、5年、10年的排水标准分别提高到15年、20年、30年,在长达64年的运行中,植草沟几乎可消纳自身及汇水区域内所有径流,可为道路植草沟的设计和应用提供参考。  相似文献